At the Northern Ocean

Kataoka Bay on Shumshu, the northernmost island of the Kurils:

Temperature data since 1896 by the Navy

- February average temperature -4,0°C, highest temperature 6,7°C, lowest temperature -12,2°C

- August average temperature 11,3°C, highest temperature 25,0°C, lowest temperature 2,2°C

- ほうこうおんち

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In July 1941, in response to the outbreak of war between Germany and the Soviet Union, the Fifth Fleet was organized for northern defense. This fleet was responsible for the regions of Karafuto, the Kuril Islands, and the Sea of Okhotsk, with its base located in Ōminato, Aomori Prefecture. The Navy's Ōminato Guard District also established communication bases in Wakkanai and Paramushir, the northernmost point of the Kurils.

During this time, discussions arose about Arctic Ocean exploration, prompting the Navy to enhance its efforts in establishing bases in the north.

Now that their hypothetical enemy, the US, has disappeared, the Navy found itself in a struggle with the Army and the Ministry of Finance, who argued "Do we really need such a massive fleet?"

If a threat could be identified in the Arctic Ocean, the Navy could justify securing a substantial budget.

"Japan does not exist so that the Navy may exist. It is because the Navy exists that Japan is able to avoid ruin."

Such was the pride held by naval officers. The Navy indeed served as a shield to protect Japan, which had felt foreign threats since Perry's arrival. However, the rising costs of military procurement strained the finances of Japan, a nation with limited resources.

The Russo-Japanese War, in which the Navy acted as Japan's shield and defeated the Russian Empire to end an endless war, imposed a significant financial burden on the populace. Even during that time, the procurement of six battleships and eight armored cruisers was a heavy load. The cost of the battleship Fusō was three times that of Mikasa, the flagship of the Russo-Japanese War. The Eight-Eight Fleet plan, which called for 16 battleships and battlecruisers surpassing even the Fusō-class, was scrapped by Prime Minister Tomosaburō Katō, himself a Navy veteran.

There were those within the Navy who understood the situation: the fleet could bankrupt the nation. Instead of limitless military expansion, why not bind the opponent within a framework to contain them?

Even the Navy's hardliners grasped this much. It was clear to anyone who had graduated from the highly competitive Naval Academy—more challenging than the Imperial University—that allocating over 30% of the national budget to fleet maintenance was unsustainable. The real question was whether holding 60% of the tonnage of America's capital ships was appropriate. This debate eventually led to a division between the "Treaty Faction" and the "Fleet Faction."

However, even the Fleet Faction wasn't advocating for outright rejection of arms reduction treaties. Instead, they argued, "At least secure 70% of the tonnage compared to America. If that can't be achieved, then do not sign the treaty."

Returning to the post-American disappearance context, the situation resembled that of the Russo-Japanese War. While the hypothetical enemy for a massive fleet was Britain, the more likely adversary was the Soviet Union. But compared to the Russian Empire, which possessed the powerful Pacific Fleet and the fearsome Baltic Fleet (in scale, if not in reality), the naval strength of its successor state, the Soviet Union, was negligible—thanks, in part, to the devastation inflicted by the Japanese Navy. However, what if the Arctic Ocean became a navigable sea route? With the warming of the northern seas, the area requiring surveillance would expand dramatically. This would provide a justification for maintaining the fleet. Even before the results of any survey had been obtained—indeed, even before the survey itself had begun—construction to develop the Paramushir anchorage was hurriedly initiated.

"We don't build fleets in response to the existence of enemies. We find hypothetical enemies to justify building the fleets we want."

In this inversion of means and ends, surprisingly few people seemed to notice.

Assistant Deputy Minister Matsuoka of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Dr. Uda, and other personnel boarded the Navy's survey ship Chikushi, the Ministry of Railways' icebreakers Aniwa Maru and Sōya Maru, and the Central Meteorological Observatory's weather observation vessel Ryōfū Maru, departing from Harumi Pier.

The Sōya, which had recently conducted a survey of the North American Shelf, was not dispatched this time. She was undergoing an overhaul, and her slow speed of 12 knots made her unsuitable for deployment near Soviet territory due to the risk of capture.

The Ryōfū Maru, capable of 14 knots, was tasked with surveying waters near the Paramushir Anchorage. The Aniwa Maru, capable of 16 knots, was also stationed at Paramushir for standby. Only the Chikushi, with a speed of 19 knots, and the icebreaker Sōya Maru, capable of 17 knots, were designated for the actual Arctic voyage.

"Is this Japan's northernmost island?"

Strictly speaking, Shumshu Island, located farther north, holds that title, but they were in a nearby area. Upon arriving at Paramushir and disembarking, Matsuoka couldn't help but mutter this observation. It felt warmer than he had expected. Although this island is situated at a latitude of 50 degrees north, it has never been particularly cold.

"According to the Navy's records, the highest temperature in February here is reportedly 6,7°C."

"That must've been an unusually warm day, right? Is it like that today?"

"Who knows...? It's not something I can say for certain..."

Matsuoka's assistant, while skilled at data retrieval, seemed less adept at providing analysis.

"It's often not as cold near the sea. Especially seas with warm currents. In Europe, for instance, it can feel quite mild even at the 50th parallel north," remarked Dr. Uda, joining the conversation.

Matsuoka and Uda had met earlier at a send-off event, so this wasn't their first encounter. During the voyage, Uda had been conducting observations, while Matsuoka, seasick and with little to do, had stayed in his cabin. They hadn't spoken much until now.

The ships stopped to refuel and restock supplies at Paramushir, allowing non-crew members to disembark. It was during this brief respite, as Matsuoka casually discussed the temperature, that Uda chimed in.

"What places in the world correspond to the 50th parallel north?"

"Cornwall, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Prague... those sorts of areas."

"I see. None of those seem particularly cold."

"But move inland, and you get places like Lake Baikal, Khabarovsk, or Manchuria's Xing'an Province."

"...Those sound freezing."

"Being near the ocean, with its high specific heat capacity, makes a big difference. Especially near warm currents. These currents are stronger in Japan, whereas in Europe, they've weakened."

"I see."

"Japan has long been influenced by the Kuroshio Current. Even if it has intensified, the impact isn't dramatic—at least not compared to Europe."

"What will happen to Europe?"

Matsuoka was not a scientist. As a bureaucrat in commerce and industry, his focus was less on the climate itself and more on its effects—how it would influence resources, trade routes, and economic flows. Uda, on the other hand, leaned heavily toward the scientific perspective. However, as a fellow bureaucrat, Uda understood that Matsuoka's interests lay elsewhere—focused more on practical implications than pure science.

"Until now, Europe has benefited from the warm Gulf Stream, making even regions at latitudes of 50th or 60th parallel north relatively temperate. Their agriculture has adapted to those conditions. However, that warmth is now completely gone. On the contrary, the Kuroshio Current loops around the Arctic Ocean, cools down, and flows southward."

"Huh? So, what does that mean?"

"Right now, Europe is experiencing an extreme cooling. I estimate that Japan's average temperature will rise by 3 to 5°C. However, Europe's average temperature will drop by nearly 10°C."

"Hmm, is that all...?"

Matsuoka didn't fully grasp the implications of geophysics.

In his view, a 5°C increase in Japan might make summer temperatures rise from 30°C to 35°C, which would be uncomfortable, but if winter temperatures rose from -5°C to 0°C, it would make winters easier to endure. Similarly, he thought Europe's 10°C drop might cause 30°C summer temperatures to fall to 20°C, which would hurt crop yields but seemed manageable.

Sitting nearby, an official from the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector—who was supporting Matsuoka and tasked with investigating whether warmer conditions could make agriculture feasible in southern Sakhalin, Etorofu Island, or Kunashiri Island—interjected loudly.

"Matsuoka-san, don't you understand? A 10°C difference would devastate agriculture! Even Japan's 5°C increase might make rice cultivation impossible!"

"Is it really that serious?"

"Yes! Please take this more seriously!"

Uda scratched his head.

"Well, what I just described is a hypothesis, so don't take it too literally. We're here to investigate the actual situation."

The agriculture official sighed in relief, but Uda firmly added, "Still, there's something you should remember: don't let the term 'average' mislead you. Consider two scenarios: in one, summer temperatures rise from 30°C to 35°C and winter temperatures from 0°C to 5°C; in another, summer rises from 30°C to 40°C while winter stays at 0°C. Both have the same 5°C average increase, but the implications are vastly different."

At first, Matsuoka thought, 'What's so surprising about that?' But as he thought it over, the figures startled him.

"Summer at 40°C?"

Tokyo would become unbearably hot.

...And what about Europe?

If Europe's summer temperatures of 30°C dropped to 20°C, but winter temperatures plunged from -10°C to -30°C, the consequences would be severe. While specific figures were yet to be determined, Matsuoka began to understand why there was such concern.

"Professor, do the Europeans know about this?"

"Professor Ekman, whom we're about to meet, issued warnings about it back in 1940. Apparently, no one outside of Britain took him seriously."

"Is Britain also experiencing cooling?"

"Yes, but Britain is an island nation, so the ocean moderates its climate. It's significantly better off than continental regions."

The Gulf Stream no longer carries warm currents directly to northern Europe. However, part of the Kuroshio Current, colliding with the cold Oyashio Current near Japan, now flows from west to east along the Aleutian Islands and is expected to reach the waters near Britain. Although cooler than the Gulf Stream, this current could still be considered warm by comparison.

"What about British agriculture? From the information we've gathered, British Commonwealth merchant ships are very active, purchasing large quantities of agricultural products. I've heard that Taiwan's rice exports have increased, and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry is quite pleased..."

"As expected of a trade expert. Agriculture isn't my field, but I've heard British agriculture has suffered a disastrous harvest. In my area of expertise—fisheries—I can tell you that the once-rich Dogger Bank has become unproductive, and the prime fishing grounds have shifted south to waters off Spain."

Hearing about these issues in Tokyo hadn't made them real to Matsuoka. But now, standing at the northern edge of Japan on Paramushir, he could finally grasp how ocean currents influenced the Earth's climate.

'This might be about more than just the Arctic Sea route.'

Matsuoka began to realize he was part of a problem on a massive scale.

However, Paramushir was just the starting point. It served merely as Japan's final supply base. The true mission lay ahead.

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The next chapter will be uploaded at 21:00.

- ほうこうおんち