Nightmare on the China Front

The so-called Central Plains: "It's been raining a lot lately, man."

Jiangnan and Guangdong: "The rain and typhoons have been absolutely terrible!"

Manchuria: "It's been getting more comfortable recently, but it's still hot for us."

West: "I don't know why, but the sandstorms are terrible, Allahu Akbar!"

- ほうこうおんち

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While the German and Soviet armies were bogged down in a quagmire deep within the Soviet Union, the British forces were similarly mired in Bengal. And the Japanese army, too, found itself immobilized in the Chinese theater.

Was it due to counterattacks by Chiang Kai-shek's forces?

No. It was the abnormal weather that bared its fangs across the vast land of China.

The weather in expansive China is influenced by several factors. One of these is the monsoon generated when water vapor and rising air currents from the Indian Ocean collide with the Himalayas. The warming of the Indian Ocean increased the amount of water vapor, but at the same time, wind speeds also rose. As a result, typhoons striking Japan became more intense but also moved faster, swiftly passing through. This mitigated the damage to some extent. The monsoons also pass over China, continually transporting moisture-laden air.

Like Japan, China's weather is also influenced by the cold air mass of the Siberian High. Unlike over the Pacific, where it is pushed back by the Ogasawara High, inland China, particularly its remote regions, remains unaffected by warming due to the influence of this air mass, which is itself affected by the cooling Arctic Ocean. The Siberian High also contributes to forming a stationary front over China, akin to Japan's rainy season front. However, it is not the Siberian High itself that creates the front over China. Rather, it is the warming and transformation of the Siberian High into what is called the Yangtze River Air Mass.

The third factor influencing China's weather is the Yangtze River Air Mass, and the fourth is the Tibetan High. These are mobile high-pressure systems. Their movement is affected by the strength of the monsoon. The Tibetan Air Mass, part of the mid-latitude high-pressure belt generated by heat from the Indian Ocean, releases latent heat through rainfall over the plateau, further raising its temperature. Carried eastward by the monsoon, this creates Japan's scorching summers.

Before Japan experiences summer, these two high-pressure air masses form a rainy season front stretching from South China to the South China Sea, as previously noted. The abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the intensified strength of these two colliding air masses due to warming had made the front's activity more vigorous. Although the rainfall in 1941 already seemed excessive, by 1942, it had turned into a full-blown calamity.

Rain described as occurring "once in a century" fell every month, breaking records repeatedly. Rivers overflowed. The areas affected by the Japanese army's advances—stretching from Luoyang in Henan Province to the north and Hunan Province to the south—were precisely those most vulnerable to this torrential rain. The downpours hindered Japanese military operations as floods and breaches of levees became rampant.

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Four years earlier, in 1938 on June 7, the Deputy Commander of the 1st War Area of the Kuomintang forces, Liu Qia, proposed the following operation:

"Blow up the Yellow River's embankments to intentionally cause a flood and halt the Japanese army's advance."

With the approval of Chiang Kai-shek, the operation was carried out. Furthermore, on June 11, the Kuomintang blew up three more sections of the dikes.

This operation caused the Yellow River to flood, submerging 54.000 square kilometers across Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces. Eleven cities and 4.000 villages were flooded, resulting in approximately 1 million drowning deaths and over 6 million victims. In addition, farmland was destroyed, and crops were completely wiped out, causing tremendous damage. Ironically, since the Japanese forces were on the move at the time, the operation resulted in only three Japanese casualties.

The Kuomintang propagated that the destruction of the Yellow River embankments was the work of the Japanese army. However, foreign journalists questioned this claim:

"How could the dikes, 20 meters thick, be destroyed by holes only 1 meter wide created by Japanese aerial bombs?"

"Could six bombers accurately target the exact same spot for such destruction?"

Eventually, it became evident that the Nationalists were responsible.

At the time, the British media, which criticized Japan and supported the Nationalists, only briefly touched on this event and avoided overt condemnation. However, Winston Churchill, upon learning of it, further lowered his opinion of Chiang Kai-shek.

Meanwhile, the Japanese forces stationed in Kaifeng conducted rescue operations. By 17:00 on June 12, they began repairing the embankments and constructing evacuation embankments and waterways for residents. They used over 100 rafts and vehicles to rescue stranded victims and cooperated with local governments to repair the embankments. The Japanese army also maintained security in the area and carried out disease prevention measures to address potential epidemics following the flood. They provided dedicated support for recovery.

In contrast, the Kuomintang disrupted these cooperative efforts, strafing with aircraft while Japanese and Chinese locals worked together to stack sandbags. They also used ground troops to fire on Japanese soldiers and flood victims with machine guns. Chinese farmers grew to admire and welcome the earnest efforts of the Japanese soldiers over the Nationalists.

On September 23 of the same year, the Nationalist army breached the Yangtze River embankments to buy time for their retreat. This, too, was done without warning, leading to local residents being caught in the flood and forcing the Japanese army to carry out rescue operations. The Kuomintang conducted 12 embankment-destruction operations, including failed attempts, causing extensive destruction to their own land.

The torrential rains of 1942 that halted the Japanese army's movements were a continuation of this pattern. While Japanese casualties were minimal, the Central Meteorological Observatory staff in Japan predicted the disasters caused by the heavy rains and reported them to the Army General Staff. The Japanese Expeditionary Forces in China issued warnings to local residents. Those who hesitated to evacuate, as seen during the Yellow River flood incident, were at times forcibly moved to safe areas at bayonet point to save their lives. The prolonged heavy rains destroyed embankments across regions, with muddy torrents swallowing entire villages. Although some initially accused the movement of food supplies from villages as looting, these actions proved effective. At evacuation sites, the Japanese army distributed food and water, transported supplies to areas facing shortages, calculated shortfall amounts, and airdropped supplies via transport aircraft.

Even though the Kuomintang's air force was depleted and could no longer carry out airstrikes, they continued their sabotage efforts. Pretending to be disaster victims, they approached Japanese soldiers and suddenly opened fire, killing both their own people and Japanese soldiers before blending back among the evacuees. They threw bombs into groups of Japanese soldiers and locals stacking sandbags. They poisoned food and water distributed by the Japanese army, then spread rumors such as:

"The Japanese poisoned the food."

"The Japanese poisoned the wells."

"The Japanese destroyed the dikes."

"The Japanese released biological weapons into the floodwaters."

The Japanese army was greatly outraged, but this time the situation differed from that of 1938. Now, British media, which sought to maintain favorable relations with Japan, reported:

"The chivalrous spirit of the Japanese army, engaging in rescue operations even against a warring nation."

"The selfishness of Chiang Kai-shek's army, even during a natural disaster."

"The contrast between Chiang Kai-shek's forces sacrificing their own people and the Japanese army halting their operations to work alongside the Chinese in reconstruction efforts."

...Of course, they made no mention of what their own country was doing in India's Bengal region.

Rather, it seemed they sought to divert attention from that issue by broadcasting such reports extensively. This only further cornered Chiang Kai-shek's forces.

However, even with praise from the British media, the Japanese army found little practical benefit in it, despite some satisfaction. In reality, their operations had been halted. As Japanese soldiers, they could not ignore those in need. Their sense of duty compelled them to help, but at the same time, they were frustrated at being unable to fight against Chiang Kai-shek's forces.

"It's strange to be thanked while attacking enemy territory."

"But you know, before I became a soldier, I was a farmer. Seeing farmland submerged, I just can't pretend not to see."

"Same here. When I see an old Chinese man at a loss, I'm reminded of my own grandfather back home."

"I just want to finish this quickly and see my father and brother back in the countryside."

"Seriously, Chiang Kai-shek should just surrender already."

The Japanese soldiers began to feel a subtle sense of war-weariness. Meanwhile, the Chinese civilians started thinking:

"The Japanese may be invaders, but they help us. The Nationalists, even though they're our countrymen, are cruel. The Japanese are much better."

This led some to form self-defense groups to capture saboteurs from their own side or to volunteer as workers for embankment repairs in other areas, cooperating with the Japanese army.

In the short term, this might have ended as a heartwarming tale. However, the abnormal weather this year brought torrential rains, embankment failures, and floods almost every month since April, occurring in various regions. The Japanese army gradually shifted from relying on infantry for flood control efforts to employing engineers and experts from mainland Japan to carry out large-scale embankment repairs.

"With these makeshift flood controls, the repairs will just keep failing."

"Proper flood control measures by experts will ultimately be cheaper and have long-term effects."

"Let's use infantry to prevent sabotage by Nationalist disguised guerillas."

"At the same time, we need to attack the bases where these guerrillas are hiding."

Indeed, since the turmoil during the late Qing dynasty, proper flood control projects had ceased, and in some areas, embankments dated back to the Ming or even Song dynasties. Given this, it was better to use Japanese engineering incorporating Western technology. However, even Japan lacked the expertise to handle such abnormal weather conditions effectively. The frequent flooding in the homeland was evidence of this shortfall. Prioritizing flood control projects in a war zone over the homeland was itself an odd decision. Moreover, the vast expanse of China's land dwarfed Japan's by far.

"It's like a dry sponge absorbing water endlessly."

"Like sprinkling water on sand with a watering can."

The limitless costs of the project left finance officials lamenting. No amount of budget seemed sufficient.

At Imperial General Headquarters, a strategy for the ongoing war was finalized. The current situation risked endless cycles of civil engineering, flood control, and security against sabotage.

"Next year, we will launch a decisive offensive against Chiang Kai-shek's forces with all our might. First, we will capture Luoyang, which is already under siege, and use it as a base to penetrate China north to south. Advancing our airbases will enable air raids not only on Chongqing but also Chengdu. Furthermore, we will capture Kunming in Yunnan to threaten Chengdu from the rear. This series of operations will be called 'Operation Ichi-Gō.'"

This operation would mobilize nearly all available ground forces, including the China Expeditionary Army, Kwantung Army from Manchuria, and even naval landing forces for rear security. Not only would the army deploy its latest fighter aircraft, but the navy's long-range Zero fighters and newly developed long-range bombers, such as the G4M land attack bomber, would also participate.

Through this all-out Operation Ichi-Gō, Japan aimed to inflict devastating damage on Chiang Kai-shek's forces and demand their surrender. With Chiang's surrender, Japanese forces would withdraw from widespread deployment across China. The flood control projects would then be handed over to the Wang Jingwei government. In short, the goal was to end the war.

Until then, embankment repairs would continue alongside preparations for the operation. This policy was approved by the Emperor, the Supreme Commander.

However, Japanese deliberations had a critical flaw. What if Chiang Kai-shek still refused to surrender?

For Japan, it was a decisive battle, but the enemy might not respond as expected and instead choose to retreat. At this point, Imperial General Headquarters avoided discussing this possibility. Saying it aloud might make it come true, so everyone averted their eyes from this potential problem. With the most pressing issue postponed, the China Expeditionary Army and Kwantung Army began preparations for Operation Ichi-Gō.

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The next chapter will be uploaded on August 3 at 17:00.

- ほうこうおんち