1942's Fall Offensive

In Stalingrad:

Khrushchev: "The Germans aren't coming."

General Yeryomenko: "I have a feeling that something else is coming... Something more troubling."

- ほうこうおんち

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In September 1942, Stalin, who had just relocated the capital to Novgorod, quickly moved the political center to the city that bore his name—Stalingrad. Despite his fierce resistance in Moscow, he did not even settle in Novgorod. Why??

Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were both dictators. Both had strong egos, often interfering with military plans and strategies, sometimes leading to defeat. However, compared to Hitler, Stalin was more deferential to experts.

Hitler would sometimes pick fights with professional soldiers, saying: "You know nothing about war!"

On the other hand, Stalin, despite initially insisting on an invasion of Berlin within a year, was willing to listen to General Zhukov's logical explanations at critical moments.

The relocation from Novgorod was another such case. Perhaps it was also the difference in personal experience—Hitler, who never stepped outside Germany, and Stalin, who, despite being forced to, left Moscow alongside his soldiers.

Stalin felt something was wrong. He spoke with soldiers who had experienced last year's battles and learned that strange signs had already appeared as early as 1940.

'Anyone who failed to report this to me will be sent to Siberia!'

That was his initial reaction, but he knew that if he tried to explain the current situation based on unproven signs, he himself might be labeled a "fascist agent spreading rumors and causing public unrest"—and be sent to Siberia as well.

Regardless, Stalin ordered the government, the military command, and the Communist Party headquarters to move south. He had no concept of the "coming Ice Age in the Northern Hemisphere," which was currently worrying the British, but by September, he sensed the abnormal conditions and thought, 'This winter might bring an extreme cold.' And this is where the strength of a dictator comes into play. Stalin ordered all Soviet citizens to move south.

"Abandon your possessions and head south immediately."

Nominally, Soviet citizens owned no private property. Everything belonged to the state—personal belongings did not officially exist. In reality, people did have personal household items, which they were allowed to take. But that was all they could carry. Anyone who hesitated would be forcibly evicted by the secret police. Thus, the mass migration of the people began.

Germany's Ju-87 Stuka dive bombers attacked, bombed, and strafed the fleeing civilians. Countless lives were lost. However, considering the alternative—the catastrophic suffering that winter could have brought—this sacrifice may have actually reduced the total number of casualties.

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Before the catastrophic winter arrived, the Soviet army launched its operation to retake Moscow.

Soviet troops, deliberately left behind in the city, had already begun urban warfare. The German army built on the doctrine of maneuver warfare struggled with the room-to-room fighting of close-quarters combat. No matter how much they boasted, "German engineering is the best in the world!", dive bombers and highly mobile tanks were useless against grenades thrown through windows and knives striking from behind doors.

"We need a more practical maschinenpistole!"

It seemed their technological focus needed to shift.

Then came a troubling order from Hitler: "Hold Moscow. Not one step back."

To Hitler, war was as much about economics as military conquest. While the German General Staff saw victory in annihilating enemy forces and capturing key locations, Hitler believed securing or destroying vast grain fields and oil fields was the key to crippling the enemy's ability to continue fighting. This perspective often led to heated arguments between Hitler and his generals. Whether Hitler was right or the General Staff was more reasonable is a separate issue. The real problem was his conflicting emotions—his refusal to abandon occupied territory and his hatred of allowing the enemy even a minor victory. Above all, he did not want Stalin to feel triumphant.

"Moscow is proof of our victory over the Soviets. Holding it will break the morale of the Soviet people."

At the same time, however, he ordered to occupy Ukraine and the Caucasus. Thus, the bulk of the German forces continued southward in pursuit of the retreating Soviet army.

Moscow was the heart of the Soviet Union, with roads extending in all directions. Avoiding the German forces advancing south, Soviet troops took advantage of the road network to infiltrate Moscow from all sides, continuing the brutal urban warfare.

Meanwhile, the German army pushing south was weakening. Their rapid advance to Moscow had overstretched supply lines, and their position created a dangerous salient—a bulge in the front lines. The Soviet army aimed to cut these supply lines, forcing the Germans into exhausting defensive battles.

"Why not let them cut us off?"

This unexpected suggestion came from Erich von Manstein, the architect of the Western Blitzkrieg.

"Our elite units are pushing south while second-rate troops are left defending Moscow. Let's switch them. Send the second-line troops south, and let the elite forces hold Moscow—but minimize combat and conserve their strength."

"But if we do that, not only will our supply lines be cut, we'll be surrounded!"

"That's the point."

"What?"

"Once we're encircled, we'll break out, destroy the Soviet forces, and withdraw to our original defensive line. To do this, the troops in Moscow must be at full strength. Also, we need to lure the Soviet army out before winter fully sets in."

"So, we let the Soviets come out to reclaim Moscow, crush them, and then abandon the city?"

"Exactly."

"But what will the Führer say?"

"Forget about the Führer for now. I alone will take responsibility. Focus on winning. Call back the advancing army immediately—if they go too far, the Soviets will see through our plan."

In response to the order to "defend to the last," Manstein replied, "It is better to abandon a city than to lose an entire army."

First, Manstein secretly swapped the Central Army, which had begun moving south, with the Moscow defense forces. He named this operation "Rochade," referring to castling in chess.

Abandoning urban warfare, the German troops positioned themselves outside the city, strengthening their defensive fortifications. Taking advantage of the weakened German resistance, the Soviet army cut off the supply lines between Smolensk and Moscow, isolating the German forces in the capital. Believing these weakened Germans were now vulnerable, the Soviets prepared to encircle them. By then, October had passed, and snow covered the battlefield.

"Men, this is our only chance. If we stay in Moscow any longer, the snow will destroy us. Break through the Soviet encirclement and escape this place at full strength!"

Manstein rallied his elite, battle-hardened troops—exhausted but still formidable. The promise of retreat gave them renewed courage. More importantly, failure meant freezing to death. This was not a last stand, but rather a last winter stand.

Before the Soviet encirclement could be fully completed, the well-prepared German forces launched a ferocious breakout assault. The Soviet troops, caught off guard, suffered devastating losses. They had become overconfident, believing they had already sealed the Germans' fate by cutting their supply lines. Intelligence suggested that the bulk of Germany's Central Army had moved south toward Ukraine. This meant that the German troops in Moscow were merely second-line forces. The Soviets were prepared to go all-out to retake the capital, but they had not expected to fight German forces retreating from Moscow. They had thought they were the attackers—yet now they were being attacked instead. This miscalculation, along with mounting battlefield chaos, led to another crushing Soviet defeat.

Furious, Hitler summoned Manstein to answer for his unauthorized withdrawal from Moscow. However, the facts were undeniable: Manstein had successfully destroyed Soviet forces, evacuated his troops to safety, and avoided catastrophe before the full onset of winter. Hitler could not ignore these achievements. In the end, he merely reassigned Manstein, demoting him to the position of commander of the French garrison.

Stalin, on the other hand, was enraged by yet another defeat. But he had no intention of ending the war. For now, at least, Moscow had been reclaimed. The Kremlin, once a symbol of Soviet power, along with Saint Basil's Cathedral in Red Square and the Kazan Cathedral, had all been reduced to rubble. However, such devastation was not unprecedented—Moscow had suffered similar fates five times before.

The last time had been 130 years ago, during Napoleon's invasion. If it had only happened once, it might have been considered a historical disgrace. But Moscow had already fallen multiple times—to the Mongol Empire (1238), the Golden Horde (1382), and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (1610). It was certainly shameful, but not extraordinary. After all, Russia had ultimately destroyed the Golden Horde, conquered the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and defeated Napoleonic France in revenge for Moscow's past humiliations. The Third Reich would be no different.

Thus, after retaking Moscow in about two months, Stalin did not return to the city.

"Comrade Stalin, if we don't return the capital to Moscow, we will be wasting the efforts of the soldiers who fought so hard."

"The capital is Moscow. Declare it as such. But I will not move to Moscow yet."

"Why not?"

"Do you want to freeze to death?"

Indeed, Moscow had been severely damaged during the urban fighting and Manstein's retreat, and the city was in a state where it could barely provide warmth. Returning there would mean death from exposure before being able to resume military command.

"Then, we cannot rebuild the Kremlin?"

"Yes, that is correct. Proceed with that."

"We should mobilize the engineers..."

"What are you saying? The engineers have been assigned to build defenses against the German dogs, not for reconstruction."

"Understood. Then, we should mobilize the people..."

"What are you talking about? Do you intend to send back the precious workers we evacuated to the freezing cold?"

"Then, how will we rebuild?"

"We have German prisoners of war, don't we? While we lost many soldiers, we also captured hundreds of thousands of Germans. Put them to work. Oh, and of course, don't give them even a bowl of buckwheat porridge or a piece of black bread."

"Comrade, if we do that, the prisoners will starve to death."

"What's the problem with that?"

Thus, hundreds of thousands of German prisoners captured from various fronts were gathered in Moscow and forced to engage in the city's reconstruction. For them, the only options were death from overwork, starvation, or freezing to death. Stalin proclaimed, "With fewer mouths to feed and Moscow rebuilt, this is how people should be used—efficiently and according to plan."

While Stalin failed to expel the German forces from Soviet territory by the end of the year, he devised a new counteroffensive plan, determined that this time he would make sure his military followed through on the strategy.

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The next chapter will be uploaded at 18:00.

- ほうこうおんち