Return Trip Report

Matsuoka returned as far as Paramushir in the northern Kuril Islands. From there, he boarded a military aircraft to Hokkaidō. Then, from Sapporo, he took an Imperial Japanese Airways passenger plane and landed at Haneda's Tokyo Airport.

"It would have been nice to go this way too."

Between the time of departure and return, the sense of crisis regarding climate change had shifted.

- ほうこうおんち

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The Total War Research Institute where Matsuoka had been stationed had undergone a change by the time he returned to Japan, with the second cohort of students now in place. The first cohort had graduated at the end of March 1942. They had concluded that in a war against Britain, "Japan cannot win without extending its reach to India," and in a war against the Soviet Union, "defeat is inevitable." These conclusions had made them unpopular with both the Army and the Navy. But those were the results they had arrived at, so there was nothing to be done about it.

The second cohort, taking into account the findings of the first cohort and the latest developments, began researching questions like: "How can we achieve victory?"

They also included factors that had been too uncertain to consider during the first cohort's time, such as "the movements of allied nations on both sides."

"Am I being held back, then?"

Vice Admiral Kiichi Endō, the third director of the Total War Research Institute, could only offer a chuckle in response to his self-deprecating tone. Matsuoka had been sent all the way to the Arctic Ocean because there was no one else who could handle the task. But it was true that he was the only one who hadn't submitted a "graduation thesis." That said, from now on, he would be shifting from the role of a researcher conducting investigations to that of an instructor explaining the phenomena that were occurring.

The disappearance of North America also meant the severing of the trans-Pacific cable between San Francisco and Manila, as well as the trans-Atlantic cable between Ireland and Newfoundland, Canada. While in the Arctic Ocean, Matsuoka had been unable to send an interim report via telegram. Matsuoka's report was, in some parts, as expected; in others, it exceeded expectations; and in still others, it ventured into the realm of the unimaginable. In any case, it was all new information, and the presentation at the Total War Research Institute had drawn an overwhelming number of applications to attend.

"You've done well," Kishi said, praising Matsuoka.

"Congratulations on your appointment as Minister, Kishi-san."

"Not much to celebrate, I'm afraid. While I think I'm suited for the role, these are extraordinary times, and it's quite a challenging job. Oh, is that the report?"

As the Minister of Commerce and Industry, Kishi had the privilege of reviewing the report before the presentation. Matsuoka had completed the report on the ship, and parts of it were still in rough draft form, particularly the explanatory notes for the charts and graphs. Kishi read through the freshly prepared material at an astonishing speed. Then, with a look of surprise, he asked, "Wait, you met Keynes?"

"Yes, I did. He gave me quite a few lectures."

"Ah, I should have gone! I've been studying his economic policies for reference in my own work."

Kishi's research on controlled economies included restrictions on currency issuance and regulation of financial transactions. Furthermore, while not fully embracing a planned economy, he was considering economic stimulation through public works. He had read Keynes' books and papers, but he had always wanted to meet the man in person.

As he continued reading, Kishi looked up at Matsuoka and asked, "What did you think of the British?"

"I was overwhelmed."

"Yet, your report doesn't show any bias toward them. That's impressive. It's easy to be swayed by the other side and end up praising them, taking their claims at face value, even in the data."

Matsuoka had attached the data he received as-is, but on separate sheets, he had added red annotations like "needs further investigation" or "the statistical methods seem arbitrary."

"Do you think we should ally with the British?"

"That decision is..."

"Come on, just between us. I won't tell anyone."

"Well, then... It's not so much about whether we should ally with them, but rather that we might have no choice. Apart from the trade figures I reported."

"What's the reason?"

"There's the issue of Europe's cooling climate. We might be heading into an ice age. If that happens, Germany, with no overseas territories, could face extinction. The Soviet Union might turn its attention eastward."

"Eastward... you mean Manchuria?"

"Yes. The East is warming, while the West is cooling. Britain will likely protect itself by sending its population to its overseas colonies. The Soviet Union, on the other hand, will probably try to seize territory from Manchuria to China."

"That's a plausible scenario."

Matsuoka then hesitated, unsure whether he should continue speaking.

"Is there something else on your mind? Please, go ahead. It's just you and me here," Kishi urged, reading Matsuoka's expression.

"It's just that I haven't been able to reach a clear conclusion myself..." Matsuoka began, prefacing his thoughts.

From an economic standpoint, every possible metric suggests that "we should ally with Britain." Under normal circumstances, there might be options like betting on Germany's victory or avoiding conflict with the Soviet Union. However, their territories are confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Germany will likely struggle to survive at all. The war for expanding their Lebensraum will likely shift southward, rather than eastward. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union will pivot its focus to the Far East, where a clash with Japan is inevitable.

Matsuoka hadn't been present at last year's public simulation exercise at the Total War Research Institute regarding a potential war with the Soviet Union, but he had been involved in the research up until the last moment, so he had a general understanding of how things might unfold. Even fighting alone, Japan would face a tough battle and would have to rely on the sea as a defensive barrier. Adding Britain to the list of enemies would be unthinkable. That much is clear. And the British are well aware of this.

That's why they confidently declare: "Become a satellite state of Britain."

Britain likely isn't considering colonizing them. Japan has grown too large for that. Militarily, Britain fears Japan enough to avoid making it an enemy. The same goes for the Soviet Union. Confidence in being able to win a fight and caution about the trouble of making an enemy can coexist. Britain likely considers fully subjugating Japan to be both difficult and not worth the effort. That's why they want to integrate Japan as a subordinate nation in terms of economy and trade. It's easier and cheaper to keep a watchdog in the Far East that way.

"Every single metric is screaming that we should ally with Britain. But if we do, won't our country be reduced to a second-rate nation entirely dependent on Britain? Even the issuance of our currency would be determined through discussions with Britain—or rather, through their directives. Wouldn't we suffer, just as we did under the unequal treaties of the Edo period, unable to even control our own currency?"

"Hmm............"

Kishi fell into deep thought.

'Maybe he's getting a bit too close to Tōjō-san? I can see glimpses of patriotism in him.'

Kishi himself also harbored a sense of patriotism. However, though he hailed from Chōshū, his patriotism differed from that of the Shōka Sonjuku.

'It's better for the country to prosper, even if it means becoming subordinate to another nation, rather than being led astray by so-called "patriotism" that's really just delusions of grandeur. That said, I'll never let us become a colony.'

This was the kind of thinking Kishi held.

Even in the Chōshū domain during the Bakumatsu period, it was the lower ranks who were zealous about "Revere the Emperor, Expel the Barbarians." Those closer to decision-making saw it as a mere tactic. People from Chōshū, like Hirobumi Itō and Kaoru Inoue, who studied in Britain, were quick to shift to what might be seen as "traitorous" opinions if they saw an advantage in doing so. At their core was the idea of "not letting Japan perish," but they didn't come across as the so-called "patriots" or "nationalists." Instead, they often appeared to be pandering to foreign powers. Kishi was more of a politician who thought, "Such things are just tactics." Controlled economies, militarism—all of it was just a means to an end.

'It's better to become a subordinate nation to Britain and maintain a prosperous life than to pretend to be noble and end up as a poor country.'

That's what he immediately thought.

'And after all, currency integration was something Keynes himself advocated.'

That said, Matsuoka, as far as Kishi knew, wasn't the type of bureaucrat to be swayed by shallow "patriotism." He was a man who could wear a mask well enough. Kishi had pushed him to voice his opinion, and Matsuoka himself admitted that his thoughts weren't fully formed.

'If his patriotism was genuinely stirred, it might be because the other side in the negotiations had that kind of attitude. Or perhaps he's putting on an act, not fully trusting me.'

Well, it didn't matter. Decision-making was the domain of politicians. Matsuoka had simply pointed out the implications of becoming too closely tied to Britain, and that was enough.

"But while you've added various annotations to the economic indicators, are you just accepting the scientific data at face value?" Kishi asked, deliberately playing the devil's advocate.

Matsuoka's response was: "I'm not accepting it blindly. It's just that this is outside my area of expertise. So I've neither affirmed nor denied it; I've simply included the data as it was provided."

"I see. That's fine then," Kishi said, dismissing Matsuoka.

There was nothing in the report that, if made public, would put his life at risk. For the Navy, the fact that the Arctic Ocean remained unsuitable for navigation might be inconvenient. But that was about it. It was already clear that the Soviet Union was a dangerous adversary and that communism was an ideology that threatened the national polity. Incidentally, the Soviet Union's attack on an isolated former American territory would make for good propaganda. Simply gathering such information was already an achievement in itself.

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The following day, a large number of spectators gathered at the Imperial Theatre in Marunouchi 3-chome, which had been requisitioned by the government, for the report presentation. This place was now being used as the headquarters of the Cabinet Intelligence Bureau. Among the attendees were associates, students, and research colleagues of Dr. Uda. It was somewhat ironic that scientists, some of whom were marked for their leftist ideologies, were visiting the headquarters of an agency created to shape public opinion, strengthen propaganda, and control thought. This alone demonstrated how significant the information being presented was—while those indifferent to such matters might not care at all, for those in the know, it was worth risking their safety to hear.

Matsuoka spoke calmly and dispassionately about what he had seen and heard. That alone was enough. Even without raising his voice like some self-proclaimed patriot, his words were deeply impactful to the audience.

Among the Army officers, there was no one so foolish as to not understand what the cooling of the European side of the Soviet Union and the warming of the Far East would mean. They took the "fact" that the Soviet Union had actually moved to occupy former American territories very seriously.

For the Navy, the revelation that the Arctic Ocean was unusable as a shipping route was both shocking and somewhat reassuring. To secure their budget, they wanted the Soviet Navy to remain as powerful as the former Imperial Russian Navy. However, some were wary of the Soviet Union's potential expansion into too many maritime regions.

Oceanographers and agricultural scientists, who had vaguely sensed climate changes, now realized how much more severe the situation was in Europe. At this time, and even much later, European research results were often treated as gospel truth. Although Japan surpassed many European countries in fields like high-altitude meteorology and oceanography, this fact was often overlooked. The claim by leading European scientists that "the Far East is warming, while Europe is heading into an ice age" left them stunned. For the first time, they recognized the gravity and seriousness of the situation.

Bureaucrats from agriculture, forestry, fisheries, civil engineering, and transportation sectors were at a loss. Their plans would have to be revised from the ground up. With the increasing severity of torrential rains, heavy snow disasters, and typhoon damage, they would have to address a slew of issues, including food procurement plans, coastal protection, flood control, and the maintenance of roads, bridges, and tunnels.

Those in economics, finance, trade, and industry had anticipated some of this, but seeing the concrete numbers left them speechless. They had predicted significant losses from the disappearance of the United States. Japan would plunge into an unprecedented economic depression. But the fact that the US had taken 80% of the world's gold, which backed the gold standard, meant that the world could no longer return to that system. They had expected this, but had "hoped it wouldn't happen." Now, they had no choice but to face reality.

Diplomats were in complete disarray. The sudden shift in international relations caused by the disappearance of the United States left them bewildered. Having long been at odds with the US and Britain, Japan had shifted its diplomatic focus to Germany, with the Soviet Union as a backup. Now, that situation was changing. How should they respond?

Across academia, government, and industry, the calm, unembellished presentation left everyone deeply shaken.

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- ほうこうおんち