Third European Winter

At Tanaka Construction

Employee: "So, where do you think America really disappeared to?"

Tanaka Kakuei: "America is still here. It's always been in my head."

'But why is that? Somewhere in my memory, there's a recollection of being brought down because of America.'

- ほうこうおんち

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The winter of 1940 was fiercely cold.

The winter of 1941 was even harsher than the previous year.

The winter of 1942 surpassed even that of 1941, bringing a deadly cold wave.

People were gradually beginning to realize that something was wrong. The abnormal cold had started the year North America disappeared. It had been going on for three years, and it was only getting worse. This couldn't be dismissed as a mere coincidence.

But realizing this didn't help. Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, and Norway were under German occupation. Germany, which championed racial superiority, wasn't the worst ruler. They treated people decently—except for Jews, Slavs, and the Romani. Those defined as Aryans, including Germanic peoples, even received food rations. But this was merely a stopgap measure, not a fundamental solution.

In truth, there was no way to come up with a fundamental solution. Even if the European continent was freezing, what could German science do about it? Nothing.

Yet, Europeans, including Germans, couldn't help but blame the ruling Nazis, and those who criticized too much were sent to concentration camps.

This was the situation in the West. In Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, things were even more dire.

"It's cold. Let's flee."

But wherever they fled, it was either just as cold, occupied by the Germans, or, if they disobeyed orders, they were sent to Siberia. Still, Stalin was somewhat better because he faced reality. He devised a proper evacuation plan. The people were supposed to escape the cold and live happily in state farms (sovkhozes) or collective farms (kolkhozes) with their new neighbors. At least, that's what Stalin was told.

"Comrade Premier, your plan is perfect. All the people have escaped the cold and are being warmly welcomed by their neighbors in their new homes."

Only reports like these reached Stalin. He grew confident in his planning abilities.

The truth, however, is better left unwritten...

Southern Europe also existed. This region included:

- Italy under Il Duce Benito Mussolini

- Spain, under Caudillo Francisco Franco

- Portugal, under Prime Minister António Salazar

All of them were dictators (Greece was occupied by Italy).

They weren't incompetent, having vaguely understood what was happening north of the Alps. Incompetent people couldn't become dictators who ruled nations by their own strength. They had some capable qualities and made decisions, for better or worse, on their own responsibility. Spain became a transit point for food sent from Britain to Germany. Italy meddled in Egypt in North Africa and was dealt a painful blow by the British. Portugal received requests from Britain to use its offshore waters. In short, all of them were connected to Britain in some way. They sensed, through various means, that Britain was seriously addressing the abnormal weather.

Thus, they took measures in their own countries. Portugal aside, Spain and Italy shared borders with France and sealed their borders. Why? Because refugees were flooding in.

"Why won't you let us through?"

"Get lost, you paupers!"

The Spanish border was still somewhat civil. At the Italian border, it was:

"Arrivederci."

And without further discussion, bodies were torn apart and thrown into the river.

Thus, denied entry, refugee camps grew along the borders. French refugees and others who had fled through France criticized: "The Spanish and Italians are heartless."

But in southern France, residents of Nice, Marseille, and Montpellier even rejected their fellow French, forming vigilante groups to drive them out. Europe had already reached a point where it was every man for himself.

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"Well, well, losing a country is quite the ordeal, isn't it?"

This was the completely detached attitude of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

Unlike Stalin, who had planned to evacuate people from one cold region to another, Churchill had already devised a plan to relocate his citizens to warmer territories under British control. All that remained was deciding when to announce the truth.

Churchill had been listening to the conclusions of the group of scientists assembled by the government.

"It could take a few years, or it could take a century, but within that timeframe, Europe will enter an ice age. The Earth's heat circulation has drastically changed, and there's nothing human power can do about it. Isostatic rebound might eventually restore North America, but that would take at least a thousand years."

If this were Japan, someone might have said: "It could be a few years, or it could be a hundred. If it's a hundred years, we still have time. Let's figure something out by then."

There was a danger of such complacency. In that regard, Britain was fortunate to have Churchill, who, though not a dictator, was as forceful as one and quick to make decisions. He had already considered the possibility that the ice age could arrive within a few years and had planned accordingly. However, while some people had already been relocated under somewhat deceptive pretenses, moving 46 million citizens required cooperation.

A plan alone was meaningless. The people had to actually act. The ships to carry the migrants also needed to be arranged with shipping companies, who wouldn't transport them at reasonable rates unless persuaded.

"By the way, I hear Japan has started disclosing information to private companies," Churchill asked an intelligence officer.

"Yes, sir, according to a report from George Sansom at the British Embassy in Japan, Matsuoka was the one who pushed the government to act."

"Matsuoka? Not Foreign Minister Matsuoka, but the one we've been backing, correct?"

"That's right."

"That's good to hear."

The bureaucrat, Matsuoka, who tended to be passive, had been spurred into action by a 24-year-old upstart entrepreneur.

This entrepreneur, Tanaka Kakuei, had argued: "Honestly, to rush and carry out large-scale construction properly, you need two things: a sense of mission and a budget. Even if you instill a sense of mission, people won't move if they can't eat. If you give them money but no sense of mission, they'll just see it as a profit opportunity and cut corners. If it feels like manna from heaven, people will slack off. So, you have to explain why this budget is being allocated and then make sure they work desperately. Otherwise, we won't make it in time."

He had pressed this point, demanding transparency.

Though Kakuei had the backing of a heavyweight like Masatoshi Ōkouchi from the Riken Institute, even a low-educated young upstart like him, who had managed to secure large sums of money and issue construction orders, faced skepticism.

"Work from some naïve young upstart? He'll just take the money and cut corners."

"The kind of work entrusted to a kid like that probably isn't that important anyway."

"He's making a big fuss, but he's not even a scholar—not even a university graduate, let alone a middle school one. We can just brush him off."

"Why should I, a University of Tokyo graduate in agricultural engineering and a Home Ministry official, have to take orders from someone like him?"

This was the kind of attitude he expected. Having managed many people, Kakuei could read the room. He was a natural charmer and could skillfully win over such types to his side.

But he felt: "If the amount of money involved gets too large, people will focus more on the money than on me, the person behind it."

Even if he built individual relationships, he first needed to unify the group's consciousness and get everyone facing the same direction. To do that, keeping crucial information secret would be a problem.

Kakuei's reasoning struck a chord with Matsuoka. But what about Britain, which was in a similar position?

Matsuoka sought information from Sansom, a British embassy official he often interacted with. At this time, the Churchill cabinet had not disclosed any information to the public beyond the government and scientific research groups.

"The Prime Minister will likely disclose the information eventually, but for now, it's being kept secret to avoid causing panic among the citizens."

"And when do you think that will happen?"

"Probably after the situation is fully understood and countermeasures have been finalized."

"When will that be?"

"Do you think someone stationed in Tokyo like me would know the details?"

Matsuoka regretted asking so directly.

"My apologies. So, Prime Minister Churchill does intend to inform the public eventually?"

"Well, I'm not the Prime Minister, so I can't say for certain."

"I'm not asking about Winston Churchill as an individual. The leader of a parliamentary democracy must eventually face the people directly, no?"

"Heh, heh... If you put it that way, then yes, exactly. His Excellency will surely fulfill his duty as Prime Minister by telling the people the truth."

Based on this information, Matsuoka advised his superior, Minister of Commerce and Industry Kishi, to disclose the information. He didn't press aggressively. In order to secure the cooperation of private companies moving forward, disclosing this information wouldn't pose a problem. It wasn't a military secret or anything of the sort. He had heard that Britain also planned to disclose the information eventually. Japan couldn't do the same thing just because Britain was doing it—Japan had its own circumstances. But in implementing a controlled economy, wasn't it necessary for everyone to share the same understanding?

Not just Nobusuke Kishi, but the entire Higashikuni Cabinet was divided over how much information should be kept secret.

"There's no need to inform the public, who would just panic over newspaper articles," argued Army Minister Tōjō.

"Disclosing our hand isn't necessary for making high-level political and diplomatic decisions," Foreign Minister Matsuoka also expressed reluctance toward disclosure.

Overall, the opinion that there was no need to inform the public was strong. However, there was also a passive faction advocating for disclosure, arguing, "It'll come out eventually, and we can't keep deceiving people forever." This had some merit, leading to heated debates.

At this point, Kishi spoke up.

"I've heard that Churchill plans to address the entire British public eventually. When that happens, it'll become quite troublesome. Military personnel and traders stationed abroad will see the reports. The news will spread gradually, especially since the Navy can read English. Then, even His Majesty will learn of it and question us. If we remain silent, it'll be as good as admitting it. If we deny it, it'll be hard to explain why we're implementing these controls. War is one thing, but this is different. We can't keep deceiving people."

The ministers fell silent.

There was also a more mundane reason: 'Being upstaged by Churchill and then having to explain ourselves would be embarrassing.'

Thus, it was decided.

"Full disclosure is premature. However, we can disclose the information to businesses under the condition of confidentiality."

Then, Prime Minister Higashikuni spoke.

"At the right time, I will make a radio broadcast. After that, we'll dissolve the Diet and hold a general election to seek the people's trust. If we gain their trust, we can boldly move forward with various measures."

Army Minister Tōjō seemed dissatisfied but didn't object. They were confident they would gain the people's trust.

And so, Japan decided to disclose the information to private companies under the condition that they wouldn't divulge it carelessly, not even to their families.

"Well, it's necessary to disclose the information at the right time. We plan to fully disclose it early next year. Gentlemen, does that sound acceptable?"

Churchill asked his cabinet members if there would be any chaos following the announcement regarding the immigration plan, food procurement plan, and economic policies, and whether they could execute everything properly. All departments confirmed there would be no issues.

Thus, it was scheduled for Monday, January 4, 1943, to announce Europe's impending ice age and the British evacuation plan.

However, it was postponed.

This information threw the British leadership into confusion.

"A landmass-like shadow has been detected in the area where North America once stood. It appears to cover a vast area."

This false report delayed the announcement, leaving Europe in continued confusion, with only a few aware of what was truly happening.

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The next chapter will be uploaded at 17:00 on the 15th.

- ほうこうおんち