German-Soviet War Outbreak

The tabletop exercises conducted by the Total War Research Institute differ from those conducted by the military. No dice are rolled.

A simulated cabinet is also organized, and data is generated for various scenarios and challenges across military, diplomatic, and economic domains. Specifically, these include projections for increased weapons projection, self-sufficiency in food and fuel, and transportation routes. While there was also a category for coordination with allied nations, it was omitted due to the ever-changing nature of the situation. Future developments are predicted based on this data. This process is repeated over and over to compile an understanding of potential outcomes.

...And no, let's not comment about how people in some world are doing the same thing with PC games.

- ほうこうおんち

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Hitler originally planned to invade the Soviet Union as soon as the snow melted. However, the invasion was postponed until June for several reasons. First, quite simply, the snow melted late. Spring arrived about a month later than usual that year.

If that had been the only issue, Hitler, not one to shy away from challenges, might have insisted that "a German soldier's resolve can overcome this kind of cold" and launched the invasion anyway. But Italy complicated matters. Italy was struggling in its war with Greece, being pushed back. Germany, aiming to avoid involvement in unnecessary conflicts, wanted to focus on its campaign against the Soviet Union, especially since Britain posed no immediate threat.

To manage the situation, Germany pressured Yugoslavia to support Italy. Under this pressure, Prince Regent Paul of Yugoslavia agreed to join the Axis Powers. However, Serbian military officers staged a coup, overthrowing the regent. Enraged by this defiance, Hitler decided to punish Yugoslavia, swiftly subduing the country in a matter of days.

Following this, Germany sent reinforcements to aid Italy. While there were concerns about Britain's response, Britain did not intervene. With German support, the Italian army achieved victory against Greece.

The Balkan Peninsula was brought under control, but these military operations disrupted preparations for the invasion of the Soviet Union. The redeployment of troops delayed the campaign by two months.

During this time, German scientists accompanying British researchers on a survey of former North American maritime regions, consulted with Professor Ekman and predicted that "A mini ice age will soon hit Europe" and "Agricultural productivity will drastically decline."

This dire forecast was dismissed by Hitler, who was preoccupied with the upcoming invasion. He not only ignored the report but also ordered the scientists to return to Germany immediately, where they were imprisoned for "spreading statements that align with enemy propaganda and incite public fear."

Despite these setbacks, the Wehrmacht advanced through Poland and attacked the Soviet Union from three fronts: North, Center, and South. Hitler exhibited an uncanny strategic instinct. He issued orders to prioritize capturing Ukraine over Moscow, recognizing its importance as a major grain-producing region. Additionally, he commanded the capture of the oil-rich Caucasus region. Thus, the Army Group South was tasked with the most critical objectives.

Initially, the Germans achieved dominance on all fronts, leading the world to predict a Soviet defeat. This expectation was understandable. The Soviet Union had struggled significantly during the Winter War with Finland, and many doubted it could stand against Germany after it bulldozed France. Indeed, even in areas where the Soviets were expected to have the upper hand, they continued to suffer losses to the Germans. However, as the German forces approached Moscow, Soviet resistance intensified. Their forces regrouped, constructing strong defensive lines. The German commanders believed they needed to capture Moscow before winter arrived and before the Soviet defenses were fully prepared.

However, Hitler objected to the push for a direct assault on Moscow.

"You don't understand economics. Moscow has no value. To end the war, we must secure the industrial and coal-mining regions of Crimea and Donets, along with the oil fields of the Caucasus."

Hitler ordered the transfer of troops from the Army Group Centre to reinforce the Southern Front, which was not progressing as he had hoped. Generaloberst Guderian of Army Group Centre opposed this decision and argued with Hitler. Despite his resistance, troops were diverted, leaving the drive toward Moscow both delayed and weakened.

Churchill observed these developments with a cold smirk.

"In this case, the Bavarian corporal is right," he remarked. "Troops should be moved south sooner rather than later. This winter is going to be terrifying."

His comment left some around him puzzled. Southern Russia in August 1941 was experiencing a severe heatwave. Wasn't there supposed to be cooling? Could the forecasts of a harsh winter be wrong?

"North of latitude 50 degrees is already very cold. The wind is fierce, and London's usual fog has vanished, likely due to the loss of warm ocean currents. Germany's wheat harvest is bound to fail this year. Unless they start looting Ukrainian wheat soon, they'll face food shortages."

Indeed, London was unseasonably cold for summer. Crop failures were expected in Scotland. Britain was preparing for famine by importing large quantities of food from Australia, Africa, and India. The lack of German U-boat interference with these shipments was a fortunate break.

"Prime Minister, are we not going to side with the Soviet Union?"

"Let the Fascists and Communists fight and destroy each other. That would suit us just fine. But the Soviet Union will hold out for now."

"What makes you say that, sir?"

"Troops stationed in Eastern Siberia will soon arrive. Likely, their entire force will come."

"But won't Japan seize the opportunity to attack?"

"No, Japan won't invade. Intelligence reports indicate that the Japanese deployments in Manchuria were not set up for an offensive against the Soviet Union. They have no intention of fighting the Soviets."

Sorge was analyzing similar information in greater detail. He sent detailed reports to Moscow on Japanese troop dispositions in Manchuria. His sources within the Japanese military provided him with crucial insights. Based on Sorge's intelligence, the Soviets decided to redeploy their Siberian divisions to the European front.

Sorge, however, was troubled by unverified information. It came from Dr. Uda, a Japanese scientist involved in a joint maritime survey with the British.

"Sea temperatures near the equator are rising. The Panama Isthmus has disappeared, allowing warm currents off Africa to flow directly into the Pacific. This is affecting the Kuroshio Current, warming Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and the Primorsky Krai. Meanwhile, tropical cyclones are intensifying, leading to widespread flooding. Conversely, Europe is expected to experience significant cooling. With the disappearance of North America, the heat circulation across the two great oceans has shifted into a single super-ocean system. This has created extreme contrasts—warming in upstream Asia and cooling downstream in Europe."

'What is this?'

The intelligentsia tends to sympathize with communism. At institutions like Tokyo Imperial University and Kyoto Imperial University, many were communists or sympathizers. Among them was a scholar from Tokyo Imperial University who participated in a survey of the former North American maritime regions. Through the connections of this scholar's students and various intermediaries, this information eventually reached Sorge.

Indeed, Tokyo's summer that year was unusually hot. However, Sorge couldn't make sense of it. If this were an ongoing series of abnormal weather patterns, Sorge would have sent the information to Moscow without hesitation. But if it were only a single year's anomaly, it might just be a coincidence. Moreover, Sorge's role was to investigate Japan's diplomacy and military, not to transmit gossip-like information. As such, he chose not to forward this report to Moscow.

Sorge didn't know.

He didn't know that August 1941 would be his last chance to send information about abnormal weather patterns. He also didn't know that similar information about Europe's abnormal weather, sent from London by communist-sympathizing intellectuals, had reached Moscow. However, Moscow discarded it, reasoning, "This claim only comes from London; no other sources support it." Had similar information been sent from Tokyo as well, even during the war, Moscow might have given it consideration.

In July, Japan's Total War Research Institute conducted war games focusing on Britain. Currently, they were gathering information for a potential war against the Soviet Union. The war games against Britain were conducted under two conditions, observed by figures like Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe, Foreign Minister Matsuoka, and Army Minister Tōjō: If Japan occupied (or "liberated") Southeast Asia and engaged in a war of attrition, it would ultimately succeed. If Japan advanced beyond Burma, the result would be defeat.

Regarding naval operations, the conclusions included:

- Diplomatically prevent the New United States (a successor to the US) and Britain from cooperating or using their islands as bases.

- If the New United States allied with Britain and posed a threat of joint invasion, destroy their fleet in a preemptive strike at Hawaii. The New United States, unlike its predecessor, lacks the industrial capacity to replace a destroyed fleet.

- Prevent submarines from advancing into the Western Pacific. Failure here would threaten trade routes with Southeast Asia, significantly increasing logistical burdens.

Additionally, the Great Northern Ocean was deemed a natural barrier against the British navy. While navigable, a direct strike on Japan would be impossible without intermediate supply stops. Attempting such a reckless endeavor would likely repeat the fate of the Baltic Fleet, which suffered on its journey around Africa to Russia.

However, even in the case of Southeast Asia's liberation, challenges remained:

- If the Soviet Union intervened to spread communism, anti-Japanese sentiment and economic disruption would escalate.

- Even without interference, it would take at least a few years of Japanese support to establish functioning political systems.

- Alternatively, treating the region as overseas territories, like Britain did, would require increased garrison forces and security personnel.

The summary concluded that, barring excessive risks, victory over Britain was achievable and strategic objectives were attainable, earning general approval from participants.

There were dissenting voices, such as: "Claiming defeat in an advance on India is unacceptable. Where's the unshakable belief in victory?"

Major General Renya Mutaguchi, head of the Army Cadet School and a close ally of War Minister Tōjō, retorted, "From a logistics perspective, the conclusion is unavoidable. You don't seriously think you can fight without supply lines, do you?"

Mutaguchi's words reflected Tōjō's stance, signaling that even the Army's leadership wasn't entirely reliant on sheer willpower unless cornered into desperate situations.

"Now then, next is the war game against the Soviet Union. I look forward to it," someone remarked, bringing the British war games to a close.

"Next is the Soviets, huh?"

"Let's hope Germany defeats them. Then we wouldn't have to worry about a war against the Soviets."

"That would make our role pointless."

The researchers laughed, their expressions bright now that one hurdle was cleared.

But as they began their Soviet studies, troubling new information emerged: Dr. Uda's report on warming trends in the Far East and the Primorsky Krai.

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Another update at 18:00.

- ほうこうおんち