Arctic Expedition and the Sorge Incident

The Planning Board was originally a government policy research organization directly under the Prime Minister. However, with the prolonged Sino-Japanese War, it transformed into an agency tasked with implementing a wartime controlled economy. This controlled economy bore a close resemblance to communist policies.

The business community strongly disliked this aspect and attacked the Planning Board. Nobusuke Kishi, the Deputy Minister of Commerce and Industry involved with the Planning Board, clashed with Ichizō Kobayashi, the Minister of Commerce and Industry who came from the business world.

When people from within the Planning Board were arrested for violating the Peace Preservation Law, Kishi was forced to design, taking responsibility for the incident. Nobusuke Kishi fell from power for a period.

- ほうこうおんち

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"What if Eastern Siberia warms up?"

Let's examine the implications for warfare under this scenario.

The Soviet military would benefit significantly. The thawing of permafrost and the formation of wetlands would transform the terrain, but the Soviets who are accustomed to such conditions could leverage this to their advantage. Combat operations in the muddy terrain would favor their army. Additionally, warmer conditions would facilitate their operations, allowing for broader deployments and deeper troop placements, especially given their reliance on the Trans-Siberian Railway for logistics. Even camping, historically grueling in freezing conditions, would become more manageable.

"The increased crop yields in Manchuria are also foreseeable," said an official seconded from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to the Total War Research Institute.

"That's quite promising, isn't it?" responded a staff member from the Manchurian General Affairs Bureau. "In other words, the Soviet Union will have an even greater desire for Manchuria."

The more Manchuria rises in value, the more the Soviets will covet it.

"What about the Arctic Ocean? If the ice melts..."

The Navy is worried. Dr. Uda's report addressed only the issue of "global warming" and did not touch upon the state of Arctic sea ice. While Professor Ekman of Sweden predicted "an increase in sea ice," Dr. Uda, not well-versed in the physics of the Arctic Ocean, categorized this matter as "requiring further investigation."

The Navy's concern was that, should the ice melt, the Soviet Navy could forgo the traditional route of the Baltic Fleet, which involved circling the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, and instead use the Arctic Ocean. This would enable them to reach the Far East while receiving resupply and maintenance from their domestic ports.

Of course, they boldly declared, "It's unthinkable for us to lose to the likes of the Soviet Navy."

In reality, the current Soviet Navy was indeed weak. Even so, the risks associated with potential routes always require careful calculation.

The Navy had bitter memories. During the Russo-Japanese War, when Japan fought against the predecessor of the Soviet Union, the Russian Empire, just three cruisers that departed from Vladivostok managed to sink many merchant ships, including one carrying troops bound for Manchuria. This forced the Second Fleet into an exhaustive search. The commander of the Second Fleet was severely criticized by the parliament for his incompetence. Even with a small force, an adversary that could operate unpredictably using uncharted routes could create havoc. Pursuing a Vladivostok fleet all over again was not an experience they wanted to relive.

"However, this hypothesis isn't necessarily correct."

As an archipelago country, Japan was more sensitive than continental countries to changes in ocean currents and other marine conditions. Even so, it approached grand theories with caution. Japanese conservatism often led to thinking, "There's no way that could happen." But the brilliant minds at the Total War Research Institute suggested otherwise. "Why not investigate it?"

Dr. Uda himself, after returning from the former North America (now called the North American Shelf), had applied to conduct a survey of the Arctic Ocean.

"This may sound odd..." someone began. "But maybe it was a good thing we signed the Neutrality Pact with the Soviets. If a German ally like us said we wanted to survey Soviet territorial waters during wartime, we'd probably be denied outright."

"And yet, here we are, the ones researching potential conflict with the Soviets, saying such a thing?"

"That's why I said it might sound odd."

There was still enough room for humor.

The Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact had been signed this April by Foreign Minister Matsuoka and Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov. Although both Churchill and Sorge anticipated Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union, Matsuoka failed to foresee it. Pursuing a policy of equidistant diplomacy, Matsuoka aimed to improve relations with the Soviet Union as well, hoping that, should Japan join Germany in a war against Britain, the Soviets could mediate peace.

While Stalin and Molotov had no intention of aligning with Matsuoka's vision, they agreed to the Neutrality Pact to prepare for the impending German invasion. Upon hearing of this pact, Hitler reportedly remarked, "What are they thinking?" Yet, as Germany was still bound by its own non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union at the time, he said no more.

Churchill warned Matsuoka, "Germany will invade the Soviet Union sooner or later," but this warning was ignored.

Whatever the diplomatic or military implications, the fact that Japan and the Soviet Union were not in a state of conflict was advantageous for the Arctic Ocean and Siberian surveys. A proposal for the Arctic Ocean survey was submitted to the government.

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'A plan to survey the Arctic Ocean? Entry applications for Siberia? Investigation into global warming? Could this be related to that unverified information?'

As a Comintern spy, Sorge had obtained a portion of the Japanese government's intelligence on climate change. This was thanks to Hotsumi Ozaki, a close confidant of Prime Minister Konoe and Sorge's comrade. Intending to report to Moscow, Sorge began reconsidering the climate change intelligence he had initially dismissed as unreliable.

However, Sorge had little time left.

Yotoku Miyagi and Tomo Kitabayashi, members of the American Communist Party who had returned to Japan to continue their activities, were under covert investigation by the Special Higher Police. Radio transmissions directed toward the Soviet Union were detected, leading to Kitabayashi's arrest in September. This arrest set off a chain reaction. More arrests followed, and on October 16, Sorge was exposed as a spy. Two days prior, on October 14, Hotsumi Ozaki had also been arrested. After sufficient evidence was secured, Sorge himself was detained. Thus unfolded the Sorge Incident, which shook Japan to its core.

The details of this incident need not be elaborated here. Let us focus on its impact.

The Soviet Union highly valued Sorge's intelligence, particularly concerning the deployment of Japanese Army forces. It confirmed that the Kwantung Army was not in a position to execute a pincer attack on the Soviet Union in response to Germany's requests. This reassured the Soviets that the Far East was secure. With this assurance, the Soviets began redeploying their Far Eastern forces to the European front.

Yet Sorge was fundamentally a person from a continental country. The concept of climate change did not fully resonate with him. If he had comprehended its threat, he might have used his remaining time to alert Moscow. However, his interest in climate change was merely sparked by the fact that "Japan seems to have started investigating it based on something Britain said." His curiosity extended only as far as wondering, "What could Britain and Japan be investigating?"

In the short time between Ozaki's capture and his own arrest, Sorge focused on destroying evidence. As a result, the Soviets, having relocated their troops from Eastern Siberia, failed to notice the warming along the Pacific coast and the extreme cooling in Europe until much later.

Let us indulge in a 'What-If' scenario.

Suppose Sorge had alerted Moscow about Japan's investigation into climate change. Moscow had already received reports from British sympathizers about the possibility of abnormal weather caused by shifting ocean currents.

If they learned that Japan on the other side of Eurasia was also conducting a survey, they might have decided to investigate it themselves, even in wartime. They could have noticed the contrasting temperature changes in their western and eastern regions. In reality, they did recognize these changes later—only when they became evident to everyone. By then, it was too late to act effectively.

Yet, no one blamed Sorge for this oversight. Perhaps that alone served as some small solace for the spy who was eventually executed.

The Sorge Incident had repercussions in Japan as well.

The Arctic Ocean survey involved travel to waters close to the Soviet Union. Taking along any sympathizers of communism risked leaks of classified information. Even the researcher who remarked, "Perhaps it was a good thing we signed the neutrality pact with the Soviet Union," found themselves under surveillance by the Special Higher Police.

Both Tokyo Imperial University and Kyoto Imperial University had many researchers in Marxist economics. The Special Higher Police, who didn't draw much distinction between the humanities and sciences, raided universities. This heavy-handedness led to a backlash against the government's Arctic Ocean expedition.

"Why should we cooperate with something like that!?" became the prevailing sentiment.

The resistance wasn't just against the security apparatus. Even the mere suggestion of traveling to regions near the Soviet Union risked being labeled a "Red" or communist sympathizer. As a result, the expedition struggled to secure enough personnel.

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"That's the situation, Matsuoka-kun. How about going yourself?"

Matsuoka was suddenly thrust into the spotlight.

"Why me?" he protested. He knew nothing about ocean physics. His participation would seem pointless.

"Aren't you interested in the Northern Sea Route?"

It would be a lie to say he wasn't. If the challenging Arctic waters could be navigated to enable trade with Europe, it might open up new opportunities now that the US was out of the picture. But with Europe embroiled in war, a navigable Arctic Ocean would only invite danger.

German submarines could extend their reach. They might operate in navigable areas of the Arctic Ocean, attacking Soviet coastal commerce. If a Japanese research vessel happened to be there, the Germans wouldn't necessarily verify its identity first. After all, Germany had a history of sinking neutral ships. The prospect of traveling to such perilous waters was deeply unappealing.

"For the research, all I need is an assistant. That's it."

"Then surely someone else can go."

"Hmm... shall I be frank?" replied Arata Oka, the director of the Total War Research Institute. "You're favored by Army Minister Tōjō and close to Foreign Minister Matsuoka. You're someone who can approach the Soviet Union without hesitation. If the Special Higher Police raises concerns, you have powerful allies who can back you. That's why we want you to go. Even if something happens to the others, you could resolve it with a word."

It was an intensely political reason. Matsuoka thought to himself, 'Having influential backers is both a blessing and a curse...'

Still, the Northern Sea Route could not be ignored in the context of total war research. Whether Japan planned to use it or prevent others from using it, understanding its realities could only be advantageous.

Thus, despite being entirely outside his field of expertise, Seijūrō Matsuoka joined the Arctic Ocean expedition. News of this appointment, published in the official gazette, was relayed to Britain through embassy channels.

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The next chapter will be up in another 3 days, at 17:00 and 18:00 on the 19th.

- ほうこうおんち